ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS
Hayden Green, an expert economist living in Waipu, has reviewed the McCallum Bros proposal and prepared a response to the claim that sandmining in Bream Bay will provide significant economic benefits.
“The economic benefits assessment provided by Market Economics does not provide a sufficient basis to conclude that MBL’s proposal would deliver significant national or regional benefits that outweigh the associated costs:
The entire analysis is built on the assumption that the alternative to sourcing sand from Bream Bay would be to extract an equivalent volume from the Kaipara harbour seabed. However, this assumption is becoming increasingly tenuous. It is now clear that a variety of abundant land-based alternatives could fill part – or all – of that gap.
If the true counterfactual involved these land-based alternatives, Market Economics’ entire analysis would collapse completely, because it would be based on the wrong comparison, rendering its conclusions irrelevant.
Even disregarding this broader issue, the analysis is opaque, cannot be replicated, and contains several serious errors – many of which serve to significantly overstate the potential cost savings. Therefore, regardless of the chosen counterfactual, the benefit estimates are completely unreliable.
Even if Market Economics’ analysis were taken at face value, any cost savings may accrue primarily to MBL, rather than benefiting Aucklanders or Northlanders at large. It is doubtful that this represents the type of ‘economic benefit’ Parliament intended when enacting the Fast Track legislation.
In short, the economic analysis is manifestly inadequate and demonstrably flawed in several key respects. Given these deficiencies, I fail to see how the adjudicating panel could reasonably conclude that the proposal should be approved.”